Европейский рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива – тенденции отрасли и прогноз до 2029 года

Анализ и размер европейского рынка устойчивого авиационного топлива

Авиационная промышленность стремится сократить углеродный след, чтобы достичь устойчивой окружающей среды и соответствовать строгим нормативным стандартам по выбросам. Альтернативные решения, такие как повышение эффективности авиационных двигателей путем конструктивных изменений, гибридно-электрические и полностью электрические самолеты, возобновляемые реактивные топлива и т. д., принимаются различными заинтересованными сторонами авиационной промышленности. Однако из этих решений принятие устойчивых видов авиационного топлива, таких как E-топливо, синтетическое топливо, экологичное реактивное топливо, биореактивное топливо, водородное топливо, является одним из наиболее осуществимых альтернативных решений с точки зрения социально-экономических выгод по сравнению с другими, что вносит значительный вклад в смягчение текущего и ожидаемого будущего воздействия авиации на окружающую среду.

Устойчивое авиационное топливо является ключевым компонентом в выполнении обязательств авиационной отрасли по отделению увеличения выбросов углерода от роста трафика. Такие факторы, как рост числа пассажиров авиалиний, растущий располагаемый доход, рост авиаперевозок и рост потребления синтетических смазочных материалов дополняют рост европейского рынка устойчивого авиационного топлива. Однако отсутствие инфраструктуры выступает сдерживающим фактором для рынка.  

По данным Data Bridge Market Research, ожидается, что рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива достигнет стоимости 3 608,70 млн евро к 2029 году при среднегодовом темпе роста 47,7% в прогнозируемый период. «Биотопливо» составляет крупнейший технологический сегмент на рынке устойчивого авиационного топлива, поскольку Европа подчеркивает важность стимулирования разработки альтернативных видов топлива. Отчет о рынке устойчивого авиационного топлива также подробно охватывает анализ цен, патентный анализ и технологические достижения.   

Market Definition

Sustainable aviation fuel is a unique form of fuel designed for use in aircraft and at the same time will increase the performance of aircraft. Sustainable aviation fuels are derived from sustainable feedstock and could be very comparable in their chemistry to standard fossil jet fuel. An increase in the utility of sustainable aviation fuels bring about a reduction in carbon emissions in comparison to the traditional jet fuel because it replaces the lifecycle of the fuel.  

The aviation enterprise is willing towards bringing down carbon footprints to obtain a sustainable environment and meet stringent regulatory requirements on emissions. Moreover, enhancing aero-engine performance through layout modifications, hybrid-electric and all-electric powered aircraft, renewable jet fuels, are being adopted by numerous stakeholders of the aviation industry however the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel is taken into consideration the maximum dependable and viable opportunity solutions with respect to socio and economic advantages while in comparison to others, which contributes extensively to mitigating modern and anticipated future environmental impacts of aviation.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Dynamics

This section deals with understanding the market drivers, advantages, opportunities, restraints and challenges. All of this is discussed in detail as below:

• Increasing Need for Reduction in GHG Emissions in the Aviation Industry

Human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions amplify the greenhouse effect, causing climate change. Carbon dioxide is emitted primarily through the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Some of the biggest polluters Europely are China and Russia. These pollutions is mostly caused due to the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) owned coal, oil and gas corporations. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have grown by around 50% from pre-industrial times due to human-caused emissions.

Pollutants emitted by aircraft engines are equivalent to those emitted by fossil fuel combustion. At higher altitudes, aircraft emissions have a greater concentration of contaminants. These emissions create serious environmental issues, both in terms of their Europe effect and their impact on local air quality 

• Increase in Air Transportation, and Increase in Consumption of Synthetic Lubricants

Air travel is a critical component in achieving economic growth and development. On a national, regional, and worldwide scale, air travel fosters integration into the Europe economy and offers crucial linkages. It contributes to the growth of trade, tourism, and job possibilities. The aviation system is evolving and will continue to evolve. However, in the long run, it will be difficult for the air transportation system to adapt quickly enough to fulfil changing needs in terms of capacity, environmental impact, consumer happiness, safety, and security, all while maintaining service providers' economic viability.

The pandemic of Covid-19, along with government backing and technological discoveries, particularly in the field of fuel technology, has accelerated the aviation industry's transition to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is on the rise, non-synthetic lubricants are on the decline. Synthetic and semi-synthesis lubricants are expected to benefit from the transition because most aircrafts employ advanced grade lubricants. The worldwide sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is predicted to be driven by this factor.  

• Increase in demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel by Airlines

The aviation sector is adopting "urgent action" to meet the world's climate objective, which includes reducing air travel growth and swiftly scaling up the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). SAF's purpose is to recycle carbon from existing sustainable biomass or gases into jet fuel as a replacement for fossil jet fuel refined from petroleum crude oil. SAF's purpose is to recycle carbon from existing sustainable biomass or gases into jet fuel as a replacement for fossil jet fuel refined from petroleum crude oil. The aviation sector as a whole, as well as IATA member airlines, are committed to attaining aggressive emissions reduction objectives. SAFs (sustainable aviation fuels) have been highlighted as a key component in reaching these goals. It will take government support to use sustainable aviation fuels to satisfy the industry's climate goals

As the key industry players are recognizing the need for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), therefore the service providers have started embracing various sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) alternatives in various airlines, which is expected to further drive the growth of the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) significantly. 

• Inadequate Availability of Feedstock and Refineries to Meet Sustainable Aviation fuel Production Demand

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), which are made from bio-based feedstock’s, are an important part of the plan to decrease aviation's carbon footprint. Technically, substituting and mixing SAFs with jet fuel is possible; in fact, the aviation industry has been using SAFs for over a decade. However, because of supply and demand constraints, consumption levels remain exceedingly low.

Oil crops, sugar crops, algae, waste oil, and other biological and non-biological resources are the raw materials that play an essential part in the whole production chain of alternative aviation fuels such as synthetic fuels, e-fuels, and bio jet fuels. The need for sustainable aviation fuel may come to a standstill due to a paucity of raw materials required for manufacture. Because of a scarcity of raw materials necessary for its manufacture, demand for sustainable aviation fuel may come to a halt. Furthermore, refinery restrictions, which play a critical role in the optimal exploitation of these feedstocks, add to the total process of SAF manufacturing. Low fuel supply also puts a strain on the fuel's mixing capacity, resulting in lower efficiency.

When competition from the road gasoline sector for feedstock that meets sustainability standards grows, feedstock availability becomes a bottleneck. Feedstock costs are a significant part of the SAF cost, and price fluctuation can cause supply issues for fuel producers. Therefore, a higher fuel surcharge by a carrier is further hindering the growth of the market to an extent.

• Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices and Contamination of Lubricants

Increasing Europe competition and cost pressure force enterprises and supply chains to discover undetected cost-saving potentials. In particular, interfaces to the crude oil market are a promising field for improvement. In today’s business environment, every organization faces some risk of fluctuation in the price of crude oil and lubricant commodities. In production, manufacturers may rely on a significant amount of oil commodities, and as a result can be especially impacted by price volatility in the oil products they procure directly and indirectly through components and subassemblies. Volatile and unstable Europe markets have widespread implications for manufacturing organizations. From rising energy costs to unexpected fluctuations in crude oil manufacturing costs, unforeseen obstacles are destabilizing supply chains and making it difficult for manufacturers to remain in the black. With supplies of many raw materials becoming harder to secure, commodity price volatility may not be just a temporary phenomenon, and it is up to manufacturers to either absorb additional costs, find new ways to mitigate the expenses, or pass price increases along to customers who are already reluctant to spend.  Since pricing is affected by the tightening of supply markets, this trend shows no indication of changing anytime soon. Thus, the fluctuating cost of crude oil and other lubricants acts as a major restrain for the Europe sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market.

Carbon fragments are typically not hard enough or big enough to cause pump failure. They could, however, be big enough to block tiny filters or nozzles. Another cause of operational contamination is the presence of sand, grit, and metallic particles in the lubrication system. Which acts as a restraining factor for the Europe sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market.

• Reduction in Carbon Foot Print due to Low Capability of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) reduces carbon emissions over the lifespan of the fuel as compared to the traditional jet fuel it replaces. Cooking oil and other non-palm waste oils from animals or plants are common feedstocks, as are solid waste from homes and companies, such as packaging, paper, textiles, and food scraps that would otherwise be disposed of in landfills or incinerated. Forest debris, such as waste wood, and energy crops, such as fast-growing plants and algae, are also possible sources.

Depending on the sustainable feedstock utilized, production process, and supply chain to the airport, SAF can reduce carbon emissions by up to 80% during the lifespan of the fuel compared to the traditional jet fuel it replaces.

SAF may be mixed up to 50% with standard jet fuel and undergoes the same quality testing as traditional jet fuel. After then, the mix is recertified as Jet A or Jet A-1. It can be handled in the same manner as standard jet fuel is, thus no changes to the fueling infrastructure or aircraft that desire to utilize SAF are necessary which creates an opportunity for the growth of the Europe sustainable aviation fuel market.

• Development of Eco-Friendly and Safe Aviation Lubricants

In today's world, the aviation industry is booming, resulting in increased rivalry among aircraft aviation fuel producers in all areas. Alternative environmentally friendly sources for long-term aviation fuel production are expected to have a future influence on the aviation fuel sector. The market for sustainable aviation fuel has grown significantly over the years, owing to the growing trend of advanced fuels being utilized in airplanes all over the world.

Growing biomass crops for sustainable aviation fuel production also allows farmers to make more money in the off-season by contributing feedstocks to this new industry, while simultaneously securing agricultural advantages such as as nutrient loss reduction and improved soil quality. Thereby, creating an opportunity for the growth of Europe sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market.

• High cost of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Increases the Operating Cost of Airlines

Labour and fuel expenditures are the two most significant expenses that airlines face. In the near term, labour expenses are usually stable, but fuel prices fluctuate significantly depending on the price of oil. Fuel is a significant part of the cost of running an airline, accounting for 20-30% of total expenditures. Oil price spikes have been some of the toughest moments for airlines. Airlines can prepare for gradually rising prices by raising ticket prices or lowering the number of flights, but unexpected increases in pricing cause many airlines to lose money.

Targets for the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will begin adding to the cost of fuel this year, making things even more difficult for airlines. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Europe SAF production is only approximately 100 million litres per year, or 0.1 percent of all aviation fuel utilised. Various airlines, on the other hand, have pledged to increase this percentage to 10% by 2030, a genuinely lofty objective.

Unfortunately, because of the limited volume of manufacturing, the cost is likewise expensive. The cost of SAF is estimated to be between two and four times that of fossil fuels by IATA, while a recent disclosure by Air France-KLM suggested that the cost disparity might be closer to four to eight times that of kerosene.

Governments have been urged by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and others to encourage the development of SAF, but in the form of economic stimulation. This paves way for the increase in prices of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) thereby acting as a challenge for Europe sustainable aviation fuel (market.

Post COVID-19 Impact on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market

COVID-19 created a major impact on the sustainable aviation fuel market as almost every country has opted for the shutdown for every production facility except the ones dealing in producing the essential goods. The government has taken some strict actions such as the shutdown of production and sale of non-essential goods, blocked international trade, and many more to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The only business which is dealing in this pandemic situation is the essential services that are allowed to open and run the processes.

The growth of the sustainable aviation fuel market is increasing due to need for reduction in GHG emissions in the aviation industry. However, factors such as inadequate availability of feedstock and refineries to meet sustainable aviation fuel production demand in sustainable aviation fuel are restraining the market growth. The shutdown of production facilities during the pandemic situation has had a significant impact on the market.

Manufacturers are making various strategic decisions to bounce back post-COVID-19. The players are conducting multiple research and development activities to improve the technology involved in the sustainable aviation fuel. With this, the companies will bring advanced and accurate controllers to the market. In addition, the use of sustainable aviation fuel by government authorities in air freight has led to the market's growth.

Recent Development

• In March 2022, Neste in collaboration with DHL Express announced one of the largest ever sustainable aviation fuel deals. This agreement is Neste’s largest for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to date and one of the largest SAF agreements in the aviation industry. This collaboration will enhance Neste’s current network by offering seamless connectivity all over the world
• In March 2022, BP ventures has made a £3 million equity investment in Flylogix – a pioneering unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) business that uses drones to aid methane detection. These BP ventures focuses on connecting and growing new energy business and current network by offering seamless connectivity all over the world

Europe Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Scope

The sustainable aviation fuel market is segmented on the basis of fuel type, manufacturing technology, blending capacity, and blending platform. The growth amongst these segments will help you analyse meagre growth segments in the industries and provide the users with a valuable market overview and market insights to help them make strategic decisions for identifying core market applications.

Fuel Type

• Bio Fuel
• Hydrogen Fuel
• Power to Liquid Fuel

По типу топлива рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива в Европе сегментирован на биотопливо, водородное топливо и электроэнергию в жидком топливе.

Технология производства

• Гидроочищенные эфиры жирных кислот и жирные кислоты - синтетический парафиновый керосин (HEFA-SPK)
• Синтетический парафиновый керосин Фишера-Тропша (FT-SPK)
• Синтетический изопарафин из ферментированного гидроочищенного сахара (HFS-SIP)
• Синтетический парафиновый керосин Фишера-Тропша (FT) с ароматическими соединениями (FT-SPK/A)
• Алкоголь в реактивный двигатель Spk (ATJ-SPK)
• Каталитический гидротермолизный струйный аппарат (CHJ)

На основе технологии производства рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива Европы сегментирован на гидроочищенные эфиры жирных кислот и жирные кислоты - синтетический парафиновый керосин (HEFA-SPK), синтетический парафиновый керосин Фишера-Тропша (FT-SPK), синтетический изопарафин из ферментированного гидроочищенного сахара (HFS-SIP), синтетический парафиновый керосин Фишера-Тропша (FT) с ароматикой (FT-SPK/A), спирт для реактивного SPK (ATJ-SPK) и реактивный каталитический гидротермолиз (CHJ).

Емкость смешивания

• Менее 30 %
• 30 % до 50 %
• Более 50%

На основе возможностей смешивания европейский рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива сегментирован на сегменты ниже 30%, от 30% до 50% и выше 50%.

Смешивающая платформа

• Коммерческая авиация
• Военная авиация
• Деловая и общая авиация
• Беспилотный летательный аппарат

На основе платформы смешивания европейский рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива был сегментирован на коммерческую авиацию , военную авиацию, деловую и общую авиацию, а также беспилотные летательные аппараты.

Региональный анализ/идеи рынка устойчивого авиационного топлива

Проанализирован рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива, а также предоставлены сведения о размерах рынка и тенденциях по странам, типу топлива, технологии производства, мощности смешивания и отрасли платформ смешивания, как указано выше.

В отчете о рынке устойчивого авиационного топлива рассматриваются следующие страны: Великобритания, Германия, Франция, Испания, Италия, Нидерланды, Швейцария, Россия, Бельгия, Турция и остальные страны Европы.

Великобритания доминирует на европейском рынке устойчивого авиационного топлива; это объясняется преимуществами, которые предлагает устойчивое авиационное топливо. Кроме того, возросший спрос на сокращение выбросов углерода продвигает европейский рынок устойчивого авиационного топлива вперед в Германии. Прогнозируется, что спрос в этом регионе будет обусловлен важностью стимулирования разработки альтернативных видов топлива. 

Раздел отчета по странам также содержит отдельные факторы, влияющие на рынок, и изменения в регулировании рынка, которые влияют на текущие и будущие тенденции рынка. Такие данные, как анализ цепочки создания стоимости вверх и вниз по течению, технические тенденции и анализ пяти сил Портера, тематические исследования — вот некоторые из указателей, используемых для прогнозирования рыночного сценария для отдельных стран. Кроме того, при предоставлении прогнозного анализа данных по странам учитываются наличие и доступность европейских брендов и их проблемы из-за большой или малой конкуренции со стороны местных и отечественных брендов, влияние внутренних тарифов и торговых путей.  

Анализ конкурентной среды и доли рынка устойчивого авиационного топлива

Конкурентная среда рынка устойчивого авиационного топлива содержит сведения по конкурентам. Включены сведения о компании, финансы компании, полученный доход, рыночный потенциал, инвестиции в исследования и разработки, новые рыночные инициативы, присутствие в Европе, производственные площадки и объекты, производственные мощности, сильные и слабые стороны компании, запуск продукта, широта и широта продукта, доминирование в применении. Приведенные выше данные относятся только к фокусу компаний, связанному с рынком устойчивого авиационного топлива.

Среди основных игроков, работающих на рынке устойчивого авиационного топлива, можно назвать Neste, VELOCYS, SkyNRG, Preem AB, Eni BP plc, Cepsa, TotalEnergies, ZeroAvia, Inc. и другие.

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