Marché européen des carburants durables pour l’aviation – Tendances et prévisions du secteur jusqu’en 2029

Analyse et taille du marché européen des carburants d'aviation durables

L' industrie aéronautique souhaite réduire son empreinte carbone afin de parvenir à un environnement durable et de respecter les normes réglementaires strictes en matière d'émissions. Des solutions alternatives, telles que l'amélioration de l'efficacité des moteurs d'avion par des modifications de conception, des avions hybrides électriques et entièrement électriques, des carburants renouvelables pour avions, etc., sont adoptées par divers acteurs de l'industrie aéronautique. Cependant, parmi ces solutions, l'adoption de carburants d'aviation durables tels que les carburants électroniques, les carburants synthétiques, les carburants verts pour avions, les biocarburants et les carburants à hydrogène est l'une des solutions alternatives les plus réalisables en termes d'avantages socio-économiques par rapport aux autres, ce qui contribue de manière significative à atténuer les impacts environnementaux actuels et futurs prévus de l'aviation.

Les carburants d'aviation durables sont un élément clé pour respecter les engagements de l'industrie aéronautique visant à découpler l'augmentation des émissions de carbone de la croissance du trafic. Des facteurs tels que l'augmentation du nombre de passagers aériens, la croissance du revenu disponible, l'augmentation du transport aérien et l'augmentation de la consommation de lubrifiants synthétiques complètent la croissance du marché européen des carburants d'aviation durables. Cependant, le manque d'infrastructures constitue un facteur limitant pour le marché.  

Selon les analyses de Data Bridge Market Research, le marché des carburants d'aviation durables devrait atteindre la valeur de 3 608,70 millions d'euros d'ici 2029, à un TCAC de 47,7 % au cours de la période de prévision. Le « biocarburant » représente le segment technologique le plus important sur le marché des carburants d'aviation durables, car l'Europe souligne l'importance de stimuler le développement de carburants alternatifs. Le rapport sur le marché des carburants d'aviation durables couvre également en profondeur l'analyse des prix, l'analyse des brevets et les avancées technologiques.   

Market Definition

Sustainable aviation fuel is a unique form of fuel designed for use in aircraft and at the same time will increase the performance of aircraft. Sustainable aviation fuels are derived from sustainable feedstock and could be very comparable in their chemistry to standard fossil jet fuel. An increase in the utility of sustainable aviation fuels bring about a reduction in carbon emissions in comparison to the traditional jet fuel because it replaces the lifecycle of the fuel.  

The aviation enterprise is willing towards bringing down carbon footprints to obtain a sustainable environment and meet stringent regulatory requirements on emissions. Moreover, enhancing aero-engine performance through layout modifications, hybrid-electric and all-electric powered aircraft, renewable jet fuels, are being adopted by numerous stakeholders of the aviation industry however the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel is taken into consideration the maximum dependable and viable opportunity solutions with respect to socio and economic advantages while in comparison to others, which contributes extensively to mitigating modern and anticipated future environmental impacts of aviation.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Dynamics

This section deals with understanding the market drivers, advantages, opportunities, restraints and challenges. All of this is discussed in detail as below:

• Increasing Need for Reduction in GHG Emissions in the Aviation Industry

Human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions amplify the greenhouse effect, causing climate change. Carbon dioxide is emitted primarily through the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Some of the biggest polluters Europely are China and Russia. These pollutions is mostly caused due to the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) owned coal, oil and gas corporations. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have grown by around 50% from pre-industrial times due to human-caused emissions.

Pollutants emitted by aircraft engines are equivalent to those emitted by fossil fuel combustion. At higher altitudes, aircraft emissions have a greater concentration of contaminants. These emissions create serious environmental issues, both in terms of their Europe effect and their impact on local air quality 

• Increase in Air Transportation, and Increase in Consumption of Synthetic Lubricants

Air travel is a critical component in achieving economic growth and development. On a national, regional, and worldwide scale, air travel fosters integration into the Europe economy and offers crucial linkages. It contributes to the growth of trade, tourism, and job possibilities. The aviation system is evolving and will continue to evolve. However, in the long run, it will be difficult for the air transportation system to adapt quickly enough to fulfil changing needs in terms of capacity, environmental impact, consumer happiness, safety, and security, all while maintaining service providers' economic viability.

The pandemic of Covid-19, along with government backing and technological discoveries, particularly in the field of fuel technology, has accelerated the aviation industry's transition to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is on the rise, non-synthetic lubricants are on the decline. Synthetic and semi-synthesis lubricants are expected to benefit from the transition because most aircrafts employ advanced grade lubricants. The worldwide sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is predicted to be driven by this factor.  

• Increase in demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel by Airlines

The aviation sector is adopting "urgent action" to meet the world's climate objective, which includes reducing air travel growth and swiftly scaling up the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). SAF's purpose is to recycle carbon from existing sustainable biomass or gases into jet fuel as a replacement for fossil jet fuel refined from petroleum crude oil. SAF's purpose is to recycle carbon from existing sustainable biomass or gases into jet fuel as a replacement for fossil jet fuel refined from petroleum crude oil. The aviation sector as a whole, as well as IATA member airlines, are committed to attaining aggressive emissions reduction objectives. SAFs (sustainable aviation fuels) have been highlighted as a key component in reaching these goals. It will take government support to use sustainable aviation fuels to satisfy the industry's climate goals

As the key industry players are recognizing the need for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), therefore the service providers have started embracing various sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) alternatives in various airlines, which is expected to further drive the growth of the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) significantly. 

• Inadequate Availability of Feedstock and Refineries to Meet Sustainable Aviation fuel Production Demand

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), which are made from bio-based feedstock’s, are an important part of the plan to decrease aviation's carbon footprint. Technically, substituting and mixing SAFs with jet fuel is possible; in fact, the aviation industry has been using SAFs for over a decade. However, because of supply and demand constraints, consumption levels remain exceedingly low.

Oil crops, sugar crops, algae, waste oil, and other biological and non-biological resources are the raw materials that play an essential part in the whole production chain of alternative aviation fuels such as synthetic fuels, e-fuels, and bio jet fuels. The need for sustainable aviation fuel may come to a standstill due to a paucity of raw materials required for manufacture. Because of a scarcity of raw materials necessary for its manufacture, demand for sustainable aviation fuel may come to a halt. Furthermore, refinery restrictions, which play a critical role in the optimal exploitation of these feedstocks, add to the total process of SAF manufacturing. Low fuel supply also puts a strain on the fuel's mixing capacity, resulting in lower efficiency.

When competition from the road gasoline sector for feedstock that meets sustainability standards grows, feedstock availability becomes a bottleneck. Feedstock costs are a significant part of the SAF cost, and price fluctuation can cause supply issues for fuel producers. Therefore, a higher fuel surcharge by a carrier is further hindering the growth of the market to an extent.

• Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices and Contamination of Lubricants

Increasing Europe competition and cost pressure force enterprises and supply chains to discover undetected cost-saving potentials. In particular, interfaces to the crude oil market are a promising field for improvement. In today’s business environment, every organization faces some risk of fluctuation in the price of crude oil and lubricant commodities. In production, manufacturers may rely on a significant amount of oil commodities, and as a result can be especially impacted by price volatility in the oil products they procure directly and indirectly through components and subassemblies. Volatile and unstable Europe markets have widespread implications for manufacturing organizations. From rising energy costs to unexpected fluctuations in crude oil manufacturing costs, unforeseen obstacles are destabilizing supply chains and making it difficult for manufacturers to remain in the black. With supplies of many raw materials becoming harder to secure, commodity price volatility may not be just a temporary phenomenon, and it is up to manufacturers to either absorb additional costs, find new ways to mitigate the expenses, or pass price increases along to customers who are already reluctant to spend.  Since pricing is affected by the tightening of supply markets, this trend shows no indication of changing anytime soon. Thus, the fluctuating cost of crude oil and other lubricants acts as a major restrain for the Europe sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market.

Carbon fragments are typically not hard enough or big enough to cause pump failure. They could, however, be big enough to block tiny filters or nozzles. Another cause of operational contamination is the presence of sand, grit, and metallic particles in the lubrication system. Which acts as a restraining factor for the Europe sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market.

• Reduction in Carbon Foot Print due to Low Capability of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) reduces carbon emissions over the lifespan of the fuel as compared to the traditional jet fuel it replaces. Cooking oil and other non-palm waste oils from animals or plants are common feedstocks, as are solid waste from homes and companies, such as packaging, paper, textiles, and food scraps that would otherwise be disposed of in landfills or incinerated. Forest debris, such as waste wood, and energy crops, such as fast-growing plants and algae, are also possible sources.

Depending on the sustainable feedstock utilized, production process, and supply chain to the airport, SAF can reduce carbon emissions by up to 80% during the lifespan of the fuel compared to the traditional jet fuel it replaces.

SAF may be mixed up to 50% with standard jet fuel and undergoes the same quality testing as traditional jet fuel. After then, the mix is recertified as Jet A or Jet A-1. It can be handled in the same manner as standard jet fuel is, thus no changes to the fueling infrastructure or aircraft that desire to utilize SAF are necessary which creates an opportunity for the growth of the Europe sustainable aviation fuel market.

• Development of Eco-Friendly and Safe Aviation Lubricants

In today's world, the aviation industry is booming, resulting in increased rivalry among aircraft aviation fuel producers in all areas. Alternative environmentally friendly sources for long-term aviation fuel production are expected to have a future influence on the aviation fuel sector. The market for sustainable aviation fuel has grown significantly over the years, owing to the growing trend of advanced fuels being utilized in airplanes all over the world.

Growing biomass crops for sustainable aviation fuel production also allows farmers to make more money in the off-season by contributing feedstocks to this new industry, while simultaneously securing agricultural advantages such as as nutrient loss reduction and improved soil quality. Thereby, creating an opportunity for the growth of Europe sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market.

• High cost of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Increases the Operating Cost of Airlines

Labour and fuel expenditures are the two most significant expenses that airlines face. In the near term, labour expenses are usually stable, but fuel prices fluctuate significantly depending on the price of oil. Fuel is a significant part of the cost of running an airline, accounting for 20-30% of total expenditures. Oil price spikes have been some of the toughest moments for airlines. Airlines can prepare for gradually rising prices by raising ticket prices or lowering the number of flights, but unexpected increases in pricing cause many airlines to lose money.

Targets for the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will begin adding to the cost of fuel this year, making things even more difficult for airlines. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Europe SAF production is only approximately 100 million litres per year, or 0.1 percent of all aviation fuel utilised. Various airlines, on the other hand, have pledged to increase this percentage to 10% by 2030, a genuinely lofty objective.

Unfortunately, because of the limited volume of manufacturing, the cost is likewise expensive. The cost of SAF is estimated to be between two and four times that of fossil fuels by IATA, while a recent disclosure by Air France-KLM suggested that the cost disparity might be closer to four to eight times that of kerosene.

Governments have been urged by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and others to encourage the development of SAF, but in the form of economic stimulation. This paves way for the increase in prices of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) thereby acting as a challenge for Europe sustainable aviation fuel (market.

Post COVID-19 Impact on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market

COVID-19 created a major impact on the sustainable aviation fuel market as almost every country has opted for the shutdown for every production facility except the ones dealing in producing the essential goods. The government has taken some strict actions such as the shutdown of production and sale of non-essential goods, blocked international trade, and many more to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The only business which is dealing in this pandemic situation is the essential services that are allowed to open and run the processes.

The growth of the sustainable aviation fuel market is increasing due to need for reduction in GHG emissions in the aviation industry. However, factors such as inadequate availability of feedstock and refineries to meet sustainable aviation fuel production demand in sustainable aviation fuel are restraining the market growth. The shutdown of production facilities during the pandemic situation has had a significant impact on the market.

Manufacturers are making various strategic decisions to bounce back post-COVID-19. The players are conducting multiple research and development activities to improve the technology involved in the sustainable aviation fuel. With this, the companies will bring advanced and accurate controllers to the market. In addition, the use of sustainable aviation fuel by government authorities in air freight has led to the market's growth.

Recent Development

• In March 2022, Neste in collaboration with DHL Express announced one of the largest ever sustainable aviation fuel deals. This agreement is Neste’s largest for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to date and one of the largest SAF agreements in the aviation industry. This collaboration will enhance Neste’s current network by offering seamless connectivity all over the world
• In March 2022, BP ventures has made a £3 million equity investment in Flylogix – a pioneering unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) business that uses drones to aid methane detection. These BP ventures focuses on connecting and growing new energy business and current network by offering seamless connectivity all over the world

Europe Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Scope

The sustainable aviation fuel market is segmented on the basis of fuel type, manufacturing technology, blending capacity, and blending platform. The growth amongst these segments will help you analyse meagre growth segments in the industries and provide the users with a valuable market overview and market insights to help them make strategic decisions for identifying core market applications.

Fuel Type

• Bio Fuel
• Hydrogen Fuel
• Power to Liquid Fuel

On the basis of fuel type, the Europe sustainable aviation fuel market is segmented into bio fuel, hydrogen fuel and power to liquid fuel

Manufacturing Technology

• Hydroprocessed Fatty Acid Esters and Fatty Acids - Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (HEFA-SPK)
• Fischer Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (FT-SPK)
• Synthetic Iso-Paraffin from Fermented Hydroprocessed Sugar (HFS-SIP)
• Fischer Tropsch (FT) Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene with Aromatics (FT-SPK/A)
• Alcohol to Jet Spk (ATJ-SPK)
• Catalytic Hydrothermolysis Jet (CHJ)

On the basis of manufacturing technology, the Europe sustainable aviation fuel market has been segmented into hydroprocessed fatty acid esters and fatty acids - synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK), fischer tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene (FT-SPK), synthetic Iso-paraffin from fermented hydroprocessed sugar (HFS-SIP), fischer tropsch (FT) synthetic paraffinic kerosene with aromatics (FT-SPK/A), alcohol to jet SPK (ATJ-SPK) and catalytic hydrothermolysis jet (CHJ).

Blending Capacity

• Below 30 %
• 30 % To 50 %
• Above 50%

On the basis of blending capacity, the Europe sustainable aviation fuel market has been segmented into below 30 %, 30 % to 50 % and above 50%.

Blending Platform

• Commercial Aviation
• Military Aviation
• Business & General Aviation
• Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

On the basis of blending platform, the Europe sustainable aviation fuel market has been segmented into commercial aviation, military aviation, business & general aviation, and unmanned aerial vehicle

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Regional Analysis/Insights

The sustainable aviation fuel market is analysed and market size insights and trends are provided by country, fuel type, manufacturing technology, blending capacity, and blending platform industry as referenced above.

The countries covered in the sustainable aviation fuel market report are U.K., Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Belgium, Turkey, and the rest of Europe in Europe.

U.K. dominates the Europe sustainable aviation fuel market; this is attributable to the benefits offered by sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, increased demand for reduction in carbon footprints is propelling the European sustainable aviation fuel market ahead in Germany. The demand in this region is projected to be driven by the highlights the importance of boosting the development of alternative fuels. 

La section pays du rapport fournit également des facteurs d'impact sur les marchés individuels et des changements dans la réglementation du marché qui ont un impact sur les tendances actuelles et futures du marché. Des points de données tels que l'analyse de la chaîne de valeur en aval et en amont, les tendances techniques et l'analyse des cinq forces du porteur, les études de cas sont quelques-uns des indicateurs utilisés pour prévoir le scénario de marché pour les différents pays. En outre, la présence et la disponibilité des marques européennes et les défis auxquels elles sont confrontées en raison de la concurrence importante ou rare des marques locales et nationales, l'impact des tarifs nationaux et des routes commerciales sont pris en compte tout en fournissant une analyse prévisionnelle des données nationales.  

Analyse du paysage concurrentiel et des parts de marché du carburant d'aviation durable

Le paysage concurrentiel du marché des carburants d'aviation durables fournit des détails par concurrent. Les détails inclus sont la présentation de l'entreprise, les finances de l'entreprise, les revenus générés, le potentiel du marché, les investissements dans la recherche et le développement, les nouvelles initiatives du marché, la présence en Europe, les sites et installations de production, les capacités de production, les forces et les faiblesses de l'entreprise, le lancement du produit, la largeur et l'étendue du produit, la domination des applications. Les points de données ci-dessus fournis ne concernent que l'orientation des entreprises liée au marché des carburants d'aviation durables.

Certains des principaux acteurs opérant sur le marché des carburants d'aviation durables sont Neste, VELOCYS, SkyNRG, Preem AB, Eni BP plc, Cepsa, TotalEnergies, ZeroAvia, Inc. entre autres.

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