The Global Impact and Response to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

HIGLIGHTS:

The U.S. supported Ukraine with $46 billion in military and non-military aid between January and May 2022

The European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom have all imposed severe financial and economic sanctions against Russia

China and India did not denounce or support the attack

Fig.1: Bilateral Aid to Ukraine between January 24 and May 10, 2022 ($ Billions)

Source: GlobalData

To understand the global response and impact to the war, it is essential to comprehend the relations between these countries. A brief recap of their relations in the 20th century is discussed below:

• 1918- After years of fighting involving numerous nations and forces, Ukraine declared independence from Russia. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk grants international acknowledgment of its independence and sovereignty. Later, independent Ukraine was overthrown by Soviet armies. In 1921, the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic is established, and the Soviet Union annexes Ukraine the following year.
• 1932 and 1933- Millions of people die in a famine in 1932 and 1933 brought on by Stalin's collectivization policies, primarily ethnic Ukrainians in the so-called "bread basket" of the Soviet Union. The name of the catastrophe, "Holodomor," comes from the Ukrainian term meaning "famine."
• 1939-1944- Poland and Romania cede what is now western Ukraine to the Soviet Union between 1939 and 1944. Later, the Soviet Union is invaded and occupied by Nazi Germany and the Axis powers, wreaking havoc on Ukraine.
• 1991- Ukraine proclaims its independence, with 92 percent of voters supporting the decision in a referendum. Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus signed an agreement formally acknowledging the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The relations between the two countries became hostile in February 2014. This indicates that tension had been brewing between the two former republics of the Soviet Union for almost a decade now, ultimately leading to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. A timeline of events in short, as mentioned below would allow a more precise picture to this:

Timeline of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

2014- In February, protesters in Ukraine overthrew President Viktor Yanukovych. He had been supportive of Russia's objectives. More than 100 people were killed during the revolution in demonstrations centered on the Maidan, or Main Square, in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev. Following this pro-western uprising, the interim administration eventually signed a trade agreement with the E.U. that was regarded as a first step toward enlisting in the organization. At the conclusion of the Euromaidan protests in February 2014, the Revolution of Dignity, also known as the Euro-Maidan Revolution, occurred in Ukraine. Deadly clashes between protesters and security forces in Kyiv led to the removal of elected President Viktor Yanukovych and the overthrow of the Ukrainian government. Russia then annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Later, the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic declared their independence, supported by secessionists in eastern Ukraine. They invade Ukraine and start a war. The secessionist conflict was still ongoing in the eastern region known as Donbas. After that, it moves West. Over the course of the fight, almost 13,000 Ukrainian military and civilians perished. For years, the front lines had hardly moved.

2014-2015- The Minsk Accords are a set of ceasefire agreements signed by Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany. These agreements are seen as vague by many. The Minsk agreements were a set of international accords that aimed to end the conflict in Ukraine's Donbas. The first, referred to as the Minsk Protocol, was drafted in 2014 by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Russia, and the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, with mediation provided by the presidents of France and Germany in what is known as the Normandy Format. The agreement was signed on September 5, 2014, in Minsk, Belarus, by members of the Trilateral Contact Group and the then-leaders of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic, without acknowledging their official status (LPR). This pact sought to put into effect an immediate ceasefire after numerous prior attempts to stop the combat in the area. The Minsk II agreement, which was signed on February 12, 2015, was a revision and update of the original Minsk accord because it failed to put an end to fighting. This agreement included a number of actions, such as a ceasefire, the removal of heavy weapons from the front line, the release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine that granted certain Donbas regions self-government, and the reestablishment of control of the state border to the Ukrainian government. Fighting decreased after the agreement was signed, but it was never totally resolved, and its terms were never fully carried out. The parties to the Normandy Format concurred that Minsk II will continue to serve as the cornerstone of any ensuing peace agreement.

April 2019- Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, was elected president of Ukraine with a sizable majority on a platform of restoring Donbas to the country and establishing peace with Russia. With 43% of the party-list vote in the parliamentary election of July 21, 2019, Zelenskyy's political party, Servant of the People, became the first single-party majority in contemporary Ukrainian history. 254 of the 424 seats were won by his party. Zelenskyy pledged to end Ukraine's protracted conflict with Russia during his presidential campaign, and he has made an effort to communicate with Vladimir Putin of Russia. In 2021, tensions between his administration and Russia increased, reaching a peak in February 2022 with the beginning of the current full-scale Russian invasion. Zelenskyy proclaimed martial law in all of Ukraine and a general mobilization of the armed forces once the invasion began. He has received tremendous recognition from the international community for his leadership during the crisis and has been dubbed a symbol of the Ukrainian resistance. Zelenskyy has been rated as one of Ukraine's greatest presidents in public polls.

2021–2022- Russian President Vladimir V. Putin tries to stop Ukraine from moving closer to the U.S. and its allies. Mr. Putin wants "security guarantees," such as NATO's promise that Ukraine won't ever join the organization and that it will withdraw its soldiers from nations that joined after 1997. Given the strong cultural ties between Russia and Ukraine, many Russians consider Kyiv to be the cradle of their country. The main goal of the Russian leader was to invade Ukraine, overthrow its government, and end Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO, a Western defensive alliance. He gave up trying to take over the Ukrainian capital Kyiv after a month of failures and shifted his attention to the east and south of the country. He declared his intention to "demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine" when he began the invasion on February 24. His goal was to defend those he claimed had been the targets of the Ukrainian government's eight years of intimidation and genocide. Assuring Ukraine's neutrality was shortly added as a new goal.

AMERICA'S RESPONSE TO THE CONFLICT:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked heated discussion in America about how the U.S. should react and how much the attack threatens democracy. There have been concerns regarding the nature of the Biden administration's response, the degree to which the Russian attack has energized popular support for NATO, and whether the war has put an end to the post-Cold War era as we have known it. It has also sparked debate over how much the recent partisan split in America has been weakened due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some stats and figures in this regard are:

• Ukraine has received $13.6 billion in military and non-military aid, and Congress is currently debating an extra $40 billion. at least 3,000 additional U.S. soldiers were sent to Poland, Germany, and Romania
• At least 3,000 additional U.S. soldiers were sent to Poland, Germany, and Romania. In the event that a NATO Rapid Response Force is activated, 8,500 US troops have been placed on high alert
• Even if most Americans do not simply believe Russia to be an adversary or Ukraine to be a full ally, Americans see Ukraine as far more favorable than Russia. According to the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, a total of 34% of respondents, including 30% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats, define Russia as an enemy, 38% as a "unfriendly country," and 24% as neither friendly nor unfriendly. 19% of people think of Ukraine as an ally, while 54% of people say it is a "friendly country," and 25% think it is neither friendly nor unfriendly
• Even if the war continues, substantial bipartisan majorities continue to be opposed to sending American troops to Ukraine. 65% of people, including 68% Republicans and 62% Democrats, oppose deploying soldiers. The Ukrainian army should be provided with military hardware, according to a vast majority, 83%. Similarly, 89% of respondents support maintaining strict sanctions against Russia
• Americans are divided in their opinions along party lines but generally see the U.S. reaction to the Ukraine issue positively compared to adversely. 49% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of how the United States has responded, while 31% of Republicans and 13% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion. Another 20% are neutral, expressing neither support nor opposition. 51% of Americans believe that the United States responded "appropriately," whereas 56% of Republicans believe that the United States has "underreacted." President Joe Biden's decision to stop importing Russian energy has the approval of two-thirds of Americans, including 56% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats.

FIG.2: Monthly average prices of crude oil and natural gas, Jan 2018-Mar 2022

Source: World Economic Forum

Chart 2 demonstrates the sharp increase in fuel prices across the globe. Prior to the Ukraine War, this began in 2020. A barrel of oil cost $118 in March 2022, which is 38 percent more than in January 2022 and 81 percent more than the previous year. On March 8, the daily oil price peaked at $128 per barrel, but by April 1, it had dropped to just $104 per barrel. The WTO explains that natural gas prices differ between areas. Between January and March, the price of natural gas in Europe increased by 45 percent to $41 per million Btu (a unit of heat content). The WTO reports that prices in the United States have "generally stayed low," at about $4.9 per million Btu.

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EUROPEAN UNION'S RESPONSE TO THE CONFLICT:

Strong economic penalties, in line with U.S. policy, prohibiting the sale or supply of aircraft and related equipment to Russian airlines, as well as dual-use and oil-related technology. Limiting Russian diplomats' access to the E.U. and those complicit in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the E.U. will actively give lethal weapons to Ukrainian soldiers as part of a $500 million military aid package, marking the first time that has ever been done. The 27-member European Union (E.U.) has reacted to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with unparalleled cohesion and swiftness. Congress is interested in E.U. policy responses and coordination with the United States because the EU is a significant partner of the United States. Sanctions imposed included:

• Putting travel and asset freezes on 1,091 Russian leaders, lawmakers, and other elites, and freezing the assets of 80 businesses (Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are subject only to asset freezes).
• Extending sanctions already in place against Russia's financial industry, limiting interactions with the Central Bank, and preventing access to its reserve holdings.
• Russian imports of liquor, coal, steel and other raw commodities will all be banned starting in August 2022.
• Prohibiting the shipment of luxury items to Russia as well as specific exports in the aviation, maritime, technological, and oil refining industries (such as semiconductors).
• Extending the reach of export restrictions on products and technologies with dual uses.
• Through the European Peace Facility, the E.U. has announced a total of €1 billion (about $1.1 billion) in funding for military aid to Ukraine (EPF). This budget includes funds for lethal equipment for the first time, totaling €900,000,000 ($987,000,000); the remaining €100,000,000 ($110,000,000) goes toward nonlethal supplies. Equipment delivery is the responsibility of the member states, who may be compensated from the EPF for assistance rendered since the beginning of 2022.
• Approximately 60% of the 4.5 million refugees from Ukraine have arrived in Poland. In order to grant Ukrainian nationals and other legal residents of Ukraine instant residency rights and access to benefits throughout the E.U., the E.U. has created a temporary protection mechanism.
• The E.U. has sent emergency supplies in kind and humanitarian aid of €550 million (about $598 million) to Ukraine and its neighbors. The E.U. promised to provide an additional €1 billion in aid for refugees and internally displaced people on April 9, 2022.
• President Biden promised to work with "international partners" to increase LNG supplies to the E.U. this year while he was in Brussels on March 24–25, 2022. He also plans to increase yearly U.S. LNG shipments through 2030. Additionally, Biden stated that the United States will accept up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees and emphasized the tight cooperation between the United States and the European Union in this area.
• Since 2015, U.K. has been in Ukraine offering instruction and non-combat supplies. They sent Ukraine 2000 NLAW anti-tank missiles in 2022 and said in March that they would give Ukraine a Starstreak anti-air system. Economic sanctions against Russian banks, oligarchs, officials, and companies have been implemented by the U.S. and the E.U., although more slowly. Germany has vowed to adhere to the NATO goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense. A 110 billion euro ($100 billion) off-budget modernization fund will also be established. Prior regulations that restricted their participation in armed conflicts and the delivery of deadly equipment to a nation at war have been reversed. Scholz, the chancellor, declared that Ukraine would receive 500 Stinger missiles and 1,000 AT missiles.
• Rarely, both Finland and Sweden have waived their neutrality and given the Ukraine military support.
• Finland has donated 70,000 field rations, 1,500 rocket launchers, 150,000 rounds, 2,500 assault rifles, and 2,500 rocket launchers.
• Sweden has given over 5,000 anti-tank weapons (most likely Carl-Gustaf and NLAW systems).
• In the past, France has provided Ukraine with $60 million in lethal military hardware, and as of late, they have committed to providing a further €300 million in lethal hardware, including anti-tank, anti-aircraft, and "digital weapons" systems.

ASIA-PACIFIC'S RESPONSE TO THE CONFLICT:

동남아시아 국가들은 러시아의 우크라이나 침공에 대해 전면적인 규탄부터 지속적인 기권까지 다양한 방식으로 대응해 왔습니다. 이러한 맥락에서 지정학적 측면에서 중국과의 관계는 매우 중요합니다. 동남아시아국가연합(ASEAN)은 우크라이나 전쟁에 매우 미온적으로 대응했습니다. ASEAN 외무장관들은 성명에서 평화적인 협상과 대화를 옹호했지만, "러시아"나 "침략"이라는 표현은 사용하지 않았습니다. 이는 강대국 간의 균형을 유지하고 다른 국가의 내정에 개입하지 않는다는 ASEAN의 기본 원칙에 부합합니다. 또한, 스톡홀름 국제평화연구소(SIPRI)의 자료에 따르면 러시아는 동남아시아 최대 무기 공급국이자 중요한 무역 파트너입니다. 몇 가지 중요한 요점은 다음과 같습니다.

• 중국은 이번 공격을 비난하거나 지지하지 않았으며, 자국의 근본적인 외교 정책 원칙인 내정 ​​간섭을 하지 않는다는 점을 들어 이를 부인했습니다. 그러나 중국은 휴전을 중재할 준비가 되어 있으며, 외교적 노력을 통해 전쟁을 종식시킬 가능성도 있음을 분명히 했습니다.
• 왕이 중국 외교부장이 우크라이나 주권에 대한 중국의 지지를 시사했음에도 불구하고, 인도는 이번 공격을 비난하거나 승인하지 않았습니다. 모디 총리가 푸틴을 "친애하는 친구"라고 칭하는 등, 인도는 러시아와 긴밀한 관계를 맺고 있습니다. 인도 군사 장비의 상당 부분은 러시아산입니다. 그러나 널리 알려진 예상과는 달리, 인도는 러시아의 침공을 규탄하는 표결에 기권한 유엔 34개국 중 하나였습니다.
• 라오스와 베트남이 기권하면서, 11개국 중 9개국이 첫 번째 유엔 결의안에 찬성표를 던졌습니다. 러시아의 인권이사회 진출을 금지하는 결의안에는 필리핀과 동티모르만이 찬성표를 던졌고, 동남아시아 국가 대부분은 기권했습니다.
• 싱가포르의 제재 대응과 러시아의 행위에 대한 전면적인 거부는 이 지역에서 가장 강력한 대응이었으며, 이 작은 국가가 세계 질서에 얼마나 중요한 존재인지, 그리고 얼마나 헌신적인지를 보여주었습니다. 동남아시아에서 싱가포르는 가장 강력한 군사력을 갖추고 있으며, 1인당 군사 예산도 가장 많습니다. 태국, 인도네시아, 말레이시아와 같은 주요 국가들을 비롯한 다른 국가들도 더욱 신중한 공개 성명을 발표했습니다.
• 3월 말까지 친러 성향을 강하게 표방하고 프로그램에서 허위 정보를 유포해 온 군부 소유의 텔레비전 채널 "채널 5"의 사장이 암묵적으로 해임된 것은 태국 당국이 중립을 유지하기 위해 얼마나 노력했는지를 여실히 보여주는 사례입니다. 태국에서는 미얀마처럼 많은 구세대 엘리트층이 러시아의 침략 전쟁을 지지하는 반면, 젊은 민주화 운동가들은 러시아의 정책을 강력히 비난하고 있습니다.
• 2022년 3월 2일 유엔 총회 특별 회의에서 동북아시아 민주주의 국가인 일본과 한국은 2월 말 러시아의 우크라이나 침공을 규탄했습니다. 이는 근본적으로 가치에 기반한 선택이었습니다. 두 나라 모두 스스로를 국제 민주주의 세력 연합의 일원으로 여기고 있습니다.
• 그러나 양국의 정치 엘리트와 일반 대중은 동시에 지역 정치 환경에 큰 영향을 받습니다. 한편으로 북한은 핵무기를 개발하고 빈번한 탄도 미사일 시험을 실시하는 공격적이고 회피적인 이웃으로 우려를 받고 있습니다. 다른 한편으로 일본은 최소한 이 지역의 두 강대국인 중국과 러시아와 영토 분쟁을 겪고 있으며, 이는 위기 시 악화될 위험이 있습니다. 이러한 위협적인 이미지는 우크라이나 공격으로 현실화되었습니다.
• 중국은 양국 모두에게 가장 중요한 무역 및 투자 파트너이지만, 러시아와도 긴밀한 경제적 관계를 맺고 있습니다. 일본 정부는 러시아에 대한 서방의 제재에 동참했습니다. 에너지 수입은 예외적인데, 일본이 독일만큼 러시아에 의존하지는 않지만 유럽과 마찬가지로 예외입니다. 당초 한국은 제재를 부과하여 러시아와의 무역에서 경제적 목표를 저해하지 않으려고 노력했습니다. 그러나 2월 이후 미국은 러시아에 대한 광범위한 무역 제재에 동참하도록 일본 정부에 상당한 정치적 압력을 가해 왔습니다.
• EU, 미국, 그리고 연합국 주요 정부들은 우크라이나 전쟁 발발 이후 러시아에 대한 강력한 제재를 추진해 왔습니다. 이들 국가는 뉴델리의 공정한 입장에 전혀 만족하지 않습니다. 그들의 메시지는 명확합니다. 인도는 러시아에 더욱 적극적으로 나서야 합니다. 미국, 영국, 독일, 일본, 네덜란드 등 여러 국가의 대사들이 최근 인도를 방문했습니다. "서방"은 인도가 러시아에 대해 더욱 "원칙적인" 입장을 취하고, 유엔 및 기타 국제 포럼에서 입장을 바꾸고, 러시아산 석유 구매를 중단하고, 제재를 우회할 수 있는 루피화와 루블화 기반 무역 협정을 포기할 것을 촉구하고 있습니다.
• S. 자이샨카르 인도 외무장관에 따르면, 우크라이나 상황에 대한 인도의 입장은 "폭력과 적대 행위의 즉각적인 중단", "대화와 외교의 길로의 복귀", 그리고 "국제법, 유엔 헌장, 그리고 모든 국가의 영토 보전과 주권 존중에 기반한 세계 질서"에 기반합니다. 자이샨카르 장관은 인도 외교 정책에서 이러한 문제에 대한 결정은 국가 이익에 따라, 그리고 자국의 생각, 관점, 그리고 이해관계에 따라 이루어질 것이라고 밝혔습니다. 유엔 안전보장이사회와 총회에서 모스크바의 행위를 규탄하는 결의안이 통과되었을 때, 인도는 계속해서 표결을 자제해 왔습니다. 그러나 인도의 나렌드라 모디 총리는 푸틴 대통령과 젤렌스키 대통령과 "적대 행위의 중단"을 촉구하기 위해 인도가 취할 수 있는 조치와 긴장 완화를 위한 대화에 대해 논의했습니다. 우크라이나의 요청에 따라 인도적 지원과 의료 물품이 우크라이나에 전달되었습니다.
• 서방의 압력과 인도가 서방과 기본적으로 가까워지고 있음에도 불구하고 우크라이나 전쟁에 대한 인도의 반응은 변하지 않을 것으로 예상됩니다. 이는 복잡하고 강력한 지정학적 요인과 국가적 이익이 작용하고 있기 때문입니다. "대화와 외교"에 대한 강조는 분쟁에 대한 인도의 관점을 드러냅니다. 인도에 따르면, NATO와 러시아 간의 지정학적 갈등은 냉전 이후 안보 체제에서 비롯됩니다.
• 인도의 정치적 야당조차 인도 정부의 입장을 칭찬했는데, 이는 이례적인 일입니다. 인도와 러시아의 외교적 "우호 관계"는 1950년대로 거슬러 올라갑니다. 양국 관계가 수년간 동일하지 않았음에도 불구하고, 러시아는 다른 국가들이 지지하지 않는 상황에서도 인도를 지지해 왔습니다. 예를 들어, 러시아는 유엔에서 거부권을 행사하여 인도의 이익을 수호해 왔으며, 특히 카슈미르 문제에 대해 그러했습니다. 냉전 시대 미국이 파키스탄과 동맹을 맺었을 때, 러시아(당시 소련)는 인도를 굳건히 지지했습니다. 대다수의 인도 국민 또한 인도 정부의 러시아에 대한 현 입장을 지지합니다.

내화물 시장은 2022년부터 2029년까지 예측 기간 동안 4%의 시장 성장률을 기록할 것으로 예상됩니다. Data Bridge Market Research의 내화물 시장 보고서는 예측 기간 동안 만연할 것으로 예상되는 다양한 요인에 대한 분석과 통찰력을 제공하고 이러한 요인들이 시장 성장에 미치는 영향을 분석합니다. 내화물 시장은 제품 유형, 알칼리도, 제조 공정, 용융 온도, 형태 및 최종 사용자를 기준으로 세분화됩니다. 내화물 시장의 주요 기업으로는 RHI Magnesita, Vesuvias, Imerys, Saint Gobain SA, Ruitai Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Harbison Walker International, Coorstek, Inc., IFGL Refractories Ltd., Refratechnic Cement GmbH, HarbisonWalker International 등이 있습니다.

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